United States presidential election - Wikipedia
POLITICO's Live Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. Includes Races for President, Senate, House, Governor and. Latest on the National Elections from the afrocolombianidad.info Politics team. Headlines and video, candidates' positions on the issues, fundraising. Below is a tally of the money raised and spent through September by the presidential candidates, the national party committees and the primary “super PACs”.
Donald Trump has the grammar of a seventh grader, study says Trump's love affair with Twitter began innocently on May 4,with a plug to watch his appearance on Late Night with former host David Letterman.
Trump realDonaldTrump May 4, Since then, things have really gone downhill. Trump's Twitter feed has become a hotbed of insults and incitement of conspiracy theories and fringe ideas.
In honor of Twitter's birthday, Mashable went back in time to pick the best moments from realDonaldTrump's Twitter feed. Birtherism Trump's popularity among many in the Republican base was born in part from Birtherism — or the theory that President Barack Obama was born in Kenya and not Hawaii. Obama begrudgingly proved this conspiracy theory false by releasing his long form birth certificate. Naturally, that didn't stop Trump, who was at the time mulling his own presidential bid.
An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that BarackObama 's birth certificate is a fraud. Trump realDonaldTrump August 6, He pushed the so-called Birther theory for more than a year after Obama released proof of his Hawaii birthplace.
All others lived — Donald J. Trump realDonaldTrump December 12, Ebola fear At the height of the Ebola outbreak inTrump — who has no medical or science background — urged Obama to stop flights from areas that were battling the deadly disease. President Obama - close down the flights from Ebola infected areas right now, before it is too late! Due to a number of scandals, Cain withdrew just before the end of the year, after having gotten on the ballot in several states. A number of candidates dropped out at this point in the nomination process.
How Obama’s Team Used Big Data to Rally Voters - MIT Technology Review
Bachmann withdrew after finishing sixth in the Iowa caucuses,  Huntsman withdrew after coming in third in New Hampshire, and Perry withdrew when polls showed him drawing low numbers in South Carolina. He unexpectedly carried three states in a row on February 7 and overtook Romney in nationwide opinion polls, becoming the only candidate in the race to effectively challenge the notion that Romney was the inevitable nominee.
The Super Tuesday primaries took place on March 6. Romney carried six states, Santorum carried three, and Gingrich won only in his home state of Georgia.
Dan Wagner had seen it coming. That fall, when a special election was held to fill an open congressional seat in upstate New York, Wagner successfully predicted the final margin within votes—well before Election Day. Months later, pollsters projected that Martha Coakley was certain to win another special election, to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left empty by the death of Ted Kennedy.
As the midterms approached, Wagner built statistical models for selected Senate races and 74 congressional districts. He had counted votes one by one. His congressional predictions were off by an average of only 2.
2012 United States presidential election
His approach amounted to a decisive break with 20th-century tools for tracking public opinion, which revolved around quarantining small samples that could be treated as representative of the whole.
Wagner had emerged from a cadre of analysts who thought of voters as individuals and worked to aggregate projections about their opinions and behavior until they revealed a composite picture of everyone.
His techniques marked the fulfillment of a new way of thinking, a decade in the making, in which voters were no longer trapped in old political geographies or tethered to traditional demographic categories, such as age or gender, depending on which attributes pollsters asked about or how consumer marketers classified them for commercial purposes.
Instead, the electorate could be seen as a collection of individual citizens who could each be measured and assessed on their own terms.Best Free Christian Online Dating Site 2012
Now it was up to a candidate who wanted to lead those people to build a campaign that would interact with them the same way. After the voters returned Obama to office for a second term, his campaign became celebrated for its use of technology—much of it developed by an unusual team of coders and engineers—that redefined how individuals could use the Web, social media, and smartphones to participate in the political process.
But underneath all that were scores describing particular voters: Wagner, then 24, was soon in Des Moines, handling data entry for the state voter file that guided Obama to his crucial victory in the Iowa caucuses. He bounced from state to state through the long primary calendar, growing familiar with voter data and the ways of using statistical models to intelligently sort the electorate.
Wagner was told to stay behind and serve on a post-election task force that would review a campaign that had looked, to the outside world, technically flawless.
These scores were derived from an unprecedented volume of ongoing survey work. To derive individual-level predictions, algorithms trawled for patterns between these opinions and the data points the campaign had assembled for every voter—as many as one thousand variables each, drawn from voter registration records, consumer data warehouses, and past campaign contacts.
This innovation was most valued in the field.
List of female United States presidential and vice-presidential candidates
There, an almost perfect cycle of microtargeting models directed volunteers to scripted conversations with specific voters at the door or over the phone. The efficiency and scale of that process put the Democrats well ahead when it came to profiling voters. Within the campaign, however, the Obama data operations were understood to have shortcomings. Obama would run his final race not as an insurgent against a party establishment, but as the establishment itself.
Their demands, not the offerings of consultants and vendors, would shape the marketplace. The committee installed a Siemens Enterprise System phone-dialing unit that could put out 1. The chastening losses they had experienced in Washington separated them from those who had known only the ecstasies of At the same time, they knew they would need to succeed at registering and mobilizing new voters, especially in some of the fastest-growing demographic categories, to make up for any voters who did defect.
But within the campaign, the goal was literal. They would reassemble the coalition, one by one, through personal contacts. This reflected a principled imperative to challenge the political establishment with an empirical approach to electioneering, and it was greatly influenced by David Plouffe, the campaign manager, who loved metrics, spreadsheets, and performance reports.
Plouffe wanted to know: How much money did that ad campaign bring in? But for all its reliance on data, the Obama campaign had remained insulated from the most important methodological innovation in 21st-century politics.
InYale professors Don Green and Alan Gerber conducted the first randomized controlled trial in modern political science, assigning New Haven voters to receive nonpartisan election reminders by mail, phone, or in-person visit from a canvasser and measuring which group saw the greatest increase in turnout.
The subsequent wave of field experiments by Green, Gerber, and their followers focused on mobilization, testing competing modes of contact and get-out-the-vote language to see which were most successful. The first Obama campaign used the findings of such tests to tweak call scripts and canvassing protocols, but it never fully embraced the experimental revolution itself.
The breakthrough was that registration no longer had to be approached passively; organizers did not have to simply wait for the unenrolled to emerge from anonymity, sign a form, and, they hoped, vote.
New techniques made it possible to intelligently profile nonvoters: Applying microtargeting models identified which nonregistrants were most likely to be Democrats and which ones Republicans. The Obama campaign embedded social scientists from the Analyst Institute among its staff. Party officials knew that adding new Democratic voters to the registration rolls was a crucial element in their strategy for It wanted to take on the most vexing problem in politics: The expansion of individual-level data had made possible the kind of testing that could help do that.
List of female United States presidential and vice-presidential candidates - Wikipedia
Experimenters had typically calculated the average effect of their interventions across the entire population. When the group sent direct mail in favor of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, it barely budged those whose scores placed them in the middle of the partisan spectrum; it had a far greater impact upon those who had been profiled as soft or nonideological Republicans.
That test, and others that followed, demonstrated the limitations of traditional targeting.