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Furthermore, in order to find out exactly which measures are effective, one would have to create a large number of different worlds where only one counter measure as well as a large number of combinations of measures would be tested.
Terrorism, as the name implies, is not so much about death and destruction, rather the primary aim is to spread terror and fear. The neglected fear factor Despite all the attention terrorism is not one of the top killers in the world.
Only a few hundred people are generally killed each year by international terrorism. John Mueller points out that more people in the West are killed by lightning, accidents caused by deer, allergic reactions to peanuts or drowned in the bath and toilet than are killed by terrorism.
It should not be their primary safety concern.
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World report on road traffic injury prevention, Geneva: Fatalities in International Terrorist Incidences59 0 Table 2: The 10 leading causes of death in the U. Diseases of heart Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular diseases6. Chronic lower respiratory diseases5. Diabetes mellitus 71, 3. Influenza and pneumonia 62, 2. Alzheimer's disease 53, 2.
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrom and nephrosis 39, 1. Fear is the main component of terrorism. The risk of directly being the victim of a terrorist attack is tiny; coconuts falling from trees kill more people each year. To illustrate this perception of risk more graphically, Michael Sivak and Michael Flannangan have calculated the probability of being killed in a domestic US non-stop flight in a major US airline, in a year period, as about eight in one hundred million.
At the same time, the probability of being killed while driving on a rural interstate highway in was about 4 in a billion per kilometre.
Why are they not so worried about traffic accidents, diseases or natural disasters such as tsunamis that kill millions every year? For scholars in the field of risk perception these questions are nothing new and constitutes natural human behaviour.
It is widely accepted in risk perception that there is a sometimes very wide disparity between the perception of the public of risk and the risk indicated by the statistics compiled by experts. The reaction to dangers does not seem to match the numerical odds. Some point to the fact that people are more afraid of things they cannot control compared to things they can such as flying and smoking. If the image of the event can be accessed easily people will be more fearful of it.
Extreme event such as terrorist attacks, plane crashes or jackpot lottery wins are generally reported more intensely and remembered more easily than other media reports on risks such as cancer. With pictures of these rare events more easily available to people, the probability is generally overestimated.
The personal insight into the fate of average people makes the audience imagine themselves or a family member being in that plane which crashed or in that building that collapsed.
People fear such events disproportionately regardless of the statistical insignificant risk. Daniel Byman points out that, on a personal level, it causes more grief and emotional turmoil when a family member is murdered then when he or she is killed in a traffic accident, even though it does not change the fact of death and loss.
This is reflected by our generally universal societal rules which consider deliberate killing to be worse and deserving of harsher punishment than killing someone by accident. It is possible to recognise a hazard, evaluate the risk, and decide if and what necessary steps to take to minimize the risk. However if one is confronted with a risk that evokes a strong emotional reaction in the form of fear, we typically misperceive the risk or act as if we misperceive the risk.
If fear is one of the main components of terrorism, should not the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures also be assessed by the level of fear they reduce? Should the focus be to shift away at least partly from the expert to the layperson, to those who are the victims of terrorism and experience its effects directly as the emotional state of terror or fear?
Considering that the rationalist economic measurements have difficulties, sociological and psychological empirical measurements will seem even less exact.
The Problems of Evaluating Counter-Terrorism | Alexander Spencer - afrocolombianidad.info
Estimating the feeling of fear in a society and of individuals due to terrorism seems impossible. Nevertheless, a number of indicators, which are supposed to highlight the general feeling of fear in a society, have been suggested. For example one could examine consumer confidence as an indicator of the public mood or the level of domestic and international support for the government and its policies as an indicator of the level of fear. Do people in Germany still go on holiday to Indonesia, Spain or London, or has there been a change in their holiday- destination choice due to terrorism?
There are many other potential variables which could contribute to a change of tourism patterns. As a result, one seems forced to return to empirical evidence such as public opinion polls to give us a sense of how people feel about the counter-terrorism policies implemented by their governments. There are number of opinion polls one could consult on the general issue of fear of terrorism.
In an opinion poll conducted in the U. The results indicated that the fear of terrorism fluctuated between 86 and 78 per cent. Reports of the Allensbacher Institute of Public Opinion Polls have shown that the fear of terrorist attack in Germany has dropped from 56 per cent in December January to 45 per cent in December and 29 per cent in January Apart from the classical problems associated with opinion polls and interviews, there is another major flaw: A paper-based response by ticking boxes or giving the feeling of fear a number on a scale of one to ten seems to miss a vital point.
Even when 75 Morag, op. American Public Opinion and U. Directorate-General Press and Communication, at http: Questions are formulated along the line of: Here is a list of things that some people say they are afraid of. For each of these, please tell me if, personally, you are afraid of it, or not?
Are you afraid that it will come to a terrorist attack in Germany in the near future or not? The answers are then placed in categories and made into tables and graphs to show the increase or decrease of fear in the population.
Although not explicitly framed in such terminology, constructivism has played an important role in terrorism research in the past, as it has helped in the understanding of the controversy and difficulty of defining terrorism.
There is no concrete phenomenon called terrorism in the world that exists independent of our subjective understandings and our culture.
If fear cannot be comprehended rationally and is in fact socially constructed then a social constructivist methodology seems appropriate to complement or substitute the rational risk-management and cost-benefit approaches. This feeling in turn influences our behaviour and the behaviour of the state. They introduce counter-terrorism measures which in turn reinforce our idea that terrorism is a threat. And so the circle continues. If the threat of terrorism is socially constructed, the measures aimed at dealing with it also have to be socially constructed through language.
Therefore, could the effectiveness of these measures be assessed by examining the discourse that constructs the threat and the response? It is widely accepted that discourse analysis has to be based on text, written or oral, by authorized speakers and writers and that speech acts only enter the discourse if they are articulated by important people. In other word, the researcher should focus on experts.
However, this would not give us an insight into whether these measures are good at reducing the fear of the general public. Jennifer Milliken points out that the main weakness of the dominant approach of focusing on the expert discourse lies in the fact that it leaves out what happens once policies are implemented. And it is the layperson who is predominantly the target of terrorism today, not the expert. The emphasis should be on the layperson as an alternative to the prevailing and dominant focus on experts in policy decisions and the continuing trend of expertisation.
Is not the dominant focus of much of the existing discourse analysis on official texts by politicians and experts with authority a contradiction to the central constructivist argument of questioning established knowledge?
A central characteristic of terrorism today, so we are told, is that it targets the layperson. The obvious problem arising from this is how to access this layperson discourse. The answers given in interviews and opinion polls such as the ones mentioned above are without doubt of importance; however, how something is said and what is conveyed through the use of specific language and rhetoric also needs to be considered.
Closed questions about the feeling of fear can therefore only offer limited insight and a more open-ended conversation might be more revealing of the underlying feelings. Interviews of the general public, giving them the opportunity to talk freely on the topic of terrorism and the policies to combat it, could provide a useful insight into the layperson discourse and the social constructs embedded in it.
Researchers could also focus on TV talk show audiences, public meetings, Internet chat rooms and blogs or local community newspapers written by laypersons. Alternatively, one could focus on the transitional level between expert and layperson. Here expert knowledge is re- constructed by the mass media before it is re- constructed again and consumed and incorporated into the layperson discourse. Others may question how far the discourse found in tabloid newspapers really represents the discourse of the average layperson.
Antonio Gramsci for example would refer to the media as well as other institutions of civil society which regulate populations such as churches, schools and universities, as the extended state. How far is this discourse really taken up by the population? Whatever source one eventually decides on examining, the researcher is still left with the problem of how to conduct a discourse analyse of the layperson or layperson-near discourse.
The literature on discourse analysis in IR has increased over the last couple of years and there a number of studies which aim to examine the socially constructed nature of the world through the use of such methodology. Using predicate analysis to examine newspaper articles in tabloids related to terrorism and counter-measures and focusing on predication — i.
One could examine the identity construction of the other, i. It is clear that more research is needed to establish in more detail what alternatives or supplements there are to the existing rationalist approaches and whether the proposed constructivist discourse analysis of the layperson near discourse is a fruitful option.
What ever other possibilities one may consider suitable for accessing the appropriate discourse level, one thing this paper hopes to have conveyed it that the rationalist methods alone do not suffice. Conclusion The aim of this paper was to highlight the weaknesses of the dominant rationalist ways of assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism and with this prepare the stage for alternatives or supplements to be considered.
The traditional rationalist approaches to measuring the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures such as risk management or cost-benefit calculations do not provide a full satisfactory answer and face a number of difficulties.
Data used is very unreliable and there are too many intervening variables that can influence their calculations. The next generation, London, M.
A Post-Positivist Analysis of U. Although the fear of terrorism may be disproportionate to the risk, it is vital to take it into consideration when discussing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. One may even want to go as far as claiming that the feeling of fear is an indicator of whether counter-terrorism measures are effective, regardless of whether they truly contribute to the quantitative reduction of terrorism. If counter-measures reduce the fear of terrorism among the general population then they are effective.
Therefore, the feeling of fear is an important publicly available mean of evaluating the effects of existing counter-terrorism policies. Lists on the net assignment video readies reminiscent of Sizzling Sizzling, Ultra Vituperative, Slots and plentifulness of more.
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